For 13 years Blackbeard Data has been forecasting oil prices long term, to give guidance for our oil Royalty Buying clients. It has also been helpful for capital expenditure planning for oil companies.
In a nutshell, our oil forecasts are more accurate than using the strip of oil futures. Which is to really say, we are ‘less wrong’ as no forecast in oil is going to be highly accurate. We can beat EIA’s STEO and the oil futures strip just bear in mind we are not offering a golden bullet.
While institutional market participants routinely rely on the WTI futures term structure as their default price forecast, raw futures consistently fail to account for shifting macroeconomic fundamentals and systematic risk premia.
Our quantitative framework delivers an institutional-grade, Tiered Ensemble Forecasting System that consistently outpaces oil futures. By using multiple models—including risk-adjusted futures, Bayesian Vector Autoregressions, and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium state-space models—the system forces uncorrelated errors to cancel out. In plain English, when a model is wrong, the others balance it out. This multi-tier architecture actively adapts its composition across expanding time horizons, correcting shorter-term market signals for economic capacity utilization while leveraging structural macro-dynamics to map long-run equilibrium. Robustly calibrated to insulate parameters from extreme tail-risk anomalies, the framework provides asset managers and corporate hedgers with a mathematically disciplined alternative for sophisticated capital allocation, tactical positioning, and enterprise risk management. The complete technical paper detailing our oil price forecasting methodology is linked below.
Please be aware of our disclaimers on this oil price forecasting product here
Subscription Pricing
| Subscriber type | Price | Term |
|---|---|---|
| Small Company < 10 people | $4,000 | 1 year |
| Medium Office < 10 to 200 people | $6,000 | 1 year |
| Large companies and institutions > 200 people | $12,000 | 1 year |
At this time the only way to subscribe it by calling our office, 512 335 4552