The Iranians are up to their usual saber-rattling games. They have an embargo on their oil and in retaliation my shut off Europe’s oil early.  This will cause disruption and a price spike worldwide, but be short lived. The fundamental supply-demand curve will not be disrupted as some country will step up and buy the oil anyway. Namely India and China.  So in the end, the price hike is expected to be short lived and attributed to geo-political risk. Our estimate will be a $4-8 rise in short term oil price. The price effect will diminish over 4-6 months, but may be renewed if Iran tries more shenanigans.

Iranian disruption will have no effect on long term oil price
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